[1] For centuries, fishermen from Peru and Ecuador have known that every few years the weather and the waters of the Pacific Ocean change, as does the population of the fish they seek. These fishermen have given the name “El Niño” to this phenomenon, because they see its effects around the time of Christmas. El Niño means boychild, and Christmas is a celebration of the birth of Christ. However, the arrival of El Niño might not be as welcome as the holy day is to the religious. El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years, involves several related climatic changes which have an impact not only on the Pacific Ocean, but on the rest of the world as well.
[2] Forecasters watch for several different signs that might indicate El Niño. For one, they look for a rise in the surface pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and Australia. This is accompanied by a fall in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. These pressure changes signal that El Niño’s eastward shift is happening. Another sign of El Niño is that the trade winds in the South Pacific Ocean either become weaker or shift eastward. In some cases, they even change direction completely.
[3] An official El Niño may be declared when the warm waters of the western Pacific stretch to the east. Because more evaporation takes place over warm water, and because moisture is fuel for rain and storms, this brings an eastward shift of rainfalls. Tropical storms may hit the western coast of South America. Conversely, the western Pacific may experience drought or drought-like conditions. Such extreme weather typically only happens when El Niño conditions have lasted for several months.
[4] How exactly do scientists determine that an El Niño is happening? One way is to measure the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI. This is calculated from fluctuation in the differences in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, in the western Pacific. A negative SOI value indicates El Niño conditions, and a sustained negative SOI value may lead to an official declaration of El Niño. Scientists also monitor ocean temperatures, particularly in the top 200 meters of the ocean. The shift of warm waters from west to east will tell them quite clearly that El Niño conditions are present.
[5] El Niños typically form in spring and achieve their greatest strength and impact in the months of December and January, diminishing the following spring. The strength of individual El Niños may vary. Some are rather weak, while others, like the destructive weather patterns of 1997-1998 are very forceful.
[6] There are several effects of El Niño throughout the Pacific Ocean. In the east, there are more tropical storms and heavy rainfalls in Peru, Ecuador, and Chile. As ocean fish follow colder water, fishermen in South America may see their catches decrease significantly. In an El Niño year, the western Pacific may experience hotter than normal conditions and drought.
[7] The impacts of El Niño are not limited to the Pacific Ocean. Above-average precipitation is often seen throughout the southern United States, from California to the Atlantic Ocean. Drought caused by El Niño may spread to parts of Africa, India, and the Canadian Prairies. And the impacts are not all negative. For example, El Niño will reduce the number or severity of hurricanes and cyclones in the northern Atlantic Ocean. Canada and the northern states of the U.S. may experience milder winters, and in places such as Africa, which experience drier conditions during El Niño, there may be a decrease in diseases such as malaria, which are transmitted by insects that thrive during wet conditions. Of course, while these benefits may be welcome, it is difficult to applaud havoc that El Niño can wreak, including fires, famine, crop failure, flooding, and socio-economic unrest.